In the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, BitMeX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts green candles this year, asking: “Did you take your losses like a champ, or bottom tick the market with your market close order?” He does not believe that all is lost and although 2019 will be boring, “green shoots” will appear towards the end of the year.
“Free money and collective amnesia are powerful drugs. Also after two years of wage cucking, punters should have a few sheckles (sic) to rub together,” he said. “The 2019 chop will be intense, but the markets will claw back to $10,000. That is a very significant psychological barrier. It’s a nice round sexy number. $20,000 is the ultimate recovery”.
He pointed out that it took eleven months for Bitcoin to move from $1,000 to $10,000, but less than one month from $10,000 to $20,000 back to $10,000. Hayes noted that things are changing and the “2018 pain train spared no crypto asset or shitcoin”.
“The first quarter of 2019 witnessed depressed volumes, volatility, and price. The local lows of late 2018 have not been re-tested; however the market chop makes me feel like I’m at the Saudi embassy,” he said.
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“The Fed couldn’t stomach a 20% correction in the SPX. In the recent Fed minutes, the dot plot now shows now rate increases for the rest of 2019. The Fed will start reinvesting its runoff in the third quarter. We are only a hop, skip, and a jump away from an expanding Fed balance sheet.”
Moves by the People’s Bank of China, the Chinese central bank, are also likely to have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price. “Beijing knows China must rebalance its economy away from credit-fueled fixed asset investment,” he said. “However, Xi must not have the political cojones to push this sort of painful change through. Therefore, the PBOC said ‘fuck it’ to any attempt to reign in credit growth. The two most important central banks are creepin’ back into a super easy credit regime”.
He’s a controversial character in the crypto world, and Hayes will make money no matter the Bitcoin price. BitMEX, being a crypto trading platform that allows margin trading options, means that Hayes has no real stake in whether prices rise or fall. Some on crypto-twitter have pointed out that he predicted Bitcoin would reach $50 000 by the end of 2018.
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