Wences Casares, CEO of the large cryptocurrency company Xapo and PayPal board member has recently said that he believes bitcoin will indeed succeed over the next decade, and could even rise 250x in value, to reach over $1 million USD per coin.
He believes that portfolio managers should allocate 1% of their funds for bitcoin. However despite this, he still has reservations. He says “Bitcoin is a fascinating experiment but it is still just that: an experiment. As such it still has a chance of failing and becoming worthless. In my (subjective) opinion the chances of Bitcoin failing are at least 20%.”
Bitcoin may have a 20% chance of failing, PayPal board member states
Although he believes bitcoin has a 20% chance of failing completely, he believes there is a strong chance of it succeeding and reaching over $1 million per coin: “But after 10 years of working well without interruption, with more than 60 million holders, adding more than 1 million new holders per month and moving more than $1 billion per day worldwide, it has a good chance of succeeding. In my (subjective) opinion those chances of succeeding are at least 50%”
A 50% chance of success may seem quite low, but he reiterates that an increase of over 250 times the initial value, if correct, could create 2.5 times the whole initial portfolio value for just a 1% original investment.
Bitcoin may have a 50% chance of reaching $1 million per coin
For bitcoin bulls, a 50% chance of success would be laughably inaccurate, but however much those within the industry believe in bitcoin’s success – there’s always a risk factor. However the fact that someone of Casares’ standing is advising portfolio managers should invest in bitcoin is just the good news the market needs at the moment.
If bitcoin were to reach even a 1% share of the entire institutional market, then that would be very good news for the industry indeed.